As at March 31, 2026
| Closing 31-03-26 |
Variation 28-02-26 |
Variation 31-12-25 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Key interest rate in Canada (%) | |||
| Key interest rate in Canada (%) | 2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oil WTI (USD) | |||
| Oil WTI (USD) | $101.38 | 51.3% ▲ | 76.6% ▲ |
| Gold (USD) | |||
| Gold (USD) | $4,668.06 | -11.6% ▼ | 8.1% ▲ |
| EUR/CAD | |||
| EUR/CAD | 1.61 | -0.3% ▼ | -0.1% ▼ |
| JPY/CAD | |||
| JPY/CAD | 0.01 | 0.2% ▲ | 0.2% ▲ |
| USD/CAD | |||
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | 2.2% ▲ | 1.7% ▲ |
Sources: Bank of Canada, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
CANADIAN MARKET
-4.3% (S&P/TSX Composite 31-03-2026)The Canadian market fell 4.3% in March, recording its largest monthly decline in almost three years. The weakness was due mainly to higher energy prices and concerns about a resumption of inflation.
On the macroeconomic front, the data were more encouraging. Canada’s economy showed signs of recovery at the start of the year, with GDP growth of 0.1% in January and a preliminary estimate of 0.2% in February, suggesting gradual improvement after the contraction in late 2025.
Bond yields rose during the month on inflationary pressures related to higher energy prices. Against this backdrop, Canadian bonds declined, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index down about 2.0%.
U.S. MARKET
-2.8% (S&P 500 31-03-2026 in CAD)In the United States, the equity markets also lost ground in March, with the S&P 500 Index retreating 5.0% in U.S. dollars and 2.8% in Canadian dollars.
The conflict in the Middle East was top of mind. Against this backdrop, investors revised their outlook for monetary policy, with some expecting that the Federal Reserve would keep rates steady and others that it would even raise them this year.
Economic data also fuelled caution, with the U.S. labour market showing signs of slowing as job openings fell and hiring declined to its lowest level in several years.
The technology sector remained under pressure as large companies suffered from ongoing concerns about the profitability of their huge investments in artificial intelligence. Despite this context, hopes that the Iran War would abate caused the U.S. market to rebound in the last session of the month with its best daily performance in almost a year.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
-8.1% (MSCI EAFE 31-03-2026 in CAD)International equities were hit hard in March, falling 7.9% in local currencies and 8.1% in Canadian dollars.
In Europe, the markets saw their biggest monthly decline since 2020 on renewed fears of inflation and economic slowdown. Spiralling oil and natural gas prices boosted the rate of inflation to a level that exceeded the European Central Bank’s target.
Markets began assuming the ECB would raise interest rates to contain the inflationary pressures, pushing equity valuations down.
The economic outlook also deteriorated, especially in Germany, where growth forecasts were revised accordingly.
In Japan, geopolitical concerns also caused the stock market to sell off, with the Nikkei 225 Index shedding about 13% in local currency.
EMERGING MARKETS
-11.0% (MSCI Emerging Markets 31-03-2026 in CAD)Emerging markets were hit hardest during the month, falling 10.5% in local currencies and 11.0% in Canadian dollars.
A number of Asian markets dropped as investors reduced their exposure to risk assets. South Korea stood out, as its major tech companies, especially semiconductor manufacturers, came under pressure.
China’s stock market also fell sharply, although the Chinese economy appears to be better positioned to withstand the energy shock with its diversified sources of supply.
Overall, March illustrated emerging markets’ heightened sensitivity to external shocks, especially in an environment of higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions.
