FÉRIQUE Fund Management

April 2026 – Markets rebound on strong earnings despite geopolitical uncertainty

2 mins
Stock markets and the economy

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Global financial markets rebounded sharply in the first month of the quarter as investors proved resilient despite the still-tense geopolitical environment. Even though the conflict in the Middle East continued, disrupting energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz, the markets advanced, driven mainly by a solid corporate earnings season. 

Global equities turned in strong performances in April, largely erasing their March losses. The renewed risk appetite reflected an improvement in investor confidence amid expectations that the conflict could stabilize. At the same time, major central banks—including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada—left their key rates unchanged, despite inflationary pressures from higher energy prices. 

Férique

As at April 30, 2026

Closing
30-04-26
Variation
31-03-26
Variation
31-12-25
Key interest rate in Canada (%)
Key interest rate in Canada (%) 2.25 0.00 0.00 
Oil WTI (USD)
Oil WTI (USD) $105.07 3.6% 83.0%
Gold (USD)
Gold (USD) $4,617.85 -1.1% 6.9%
EUR/CAD
EUR/CAD 1.60 -0.7%  -0.8% 
JPY/CAD
JPY/CAD 0.01 -0.7% -0.5%
USD/CAD
USD/CAD 1.36 -2.3% -0.6%

Sources: Bank of Canada, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

CANADIAN MARKET

3.8% (S&P/TSX Composite 30-04-2026)

The Canadian market rose 3.8% in April, recovering a significant portion of its March losses. The return was due mainly to better-than-expected corporate earnings, which offset uncertainty created by the conflict in the Middle East. 

On the macroeconomic front, recent economic data confirmed further moderate growth. The Canadian economy grew 0.2% in February for a fourth straight month, after expanding by 0.1% in January. The manufacturing sector was the main driver. 

Although higher oil prices have a structural benefit for Canada, they continued to put pressure on households and some businesses. The Bank of Canada therefore left its key rate unchanged, opting for a cautious approach in an environment marked by both economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressures. Canadian bonds recorded a slightly positive return in April, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index up 0.12%. 

U.S. MARKET

7.8% (S&P 500 30-04-2026 in CAD)

In the United States, the stock market had a stellar month, with the S&P 500 Index up 10.5% in U.S. dollars and 7.8% in Canadian dollars. The advance was driven mainly by a very robust earnings season, led by big tech companies and financial institutions. 

The economic indicators also supported the market. The U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026, as initial jobless claims declined in a resilient labour market.  

In this context, the Federal Reserve left its key rate unchanged, while acknowledging that persistently high energy prices limited the possibility of monetary easing in the near term. 

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

4.9% (MSCI EAFE 30-04-2026 in CAD)

International markets were also up in April, advancing 5.2% in local currencies and 4.9% in Canadian dollars. 

The European markets benefitted from a renewed risk appetite, although the economic outlook remained fragile. Euro zone inflation reached 3.0% in April, exceeding the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target, mainly because of rising energy costs. 

In this context, the ECB opted to stand pat while signalling an increased likelihood of hikes in the coming months. Economic data indicated modest growth in the European economy in the first quarter, suggesting a slowing of activity. 

The market also rebounded in Japan, albeit to a lesser extent owing to its more limited exposure to AI-related sectors. 

EMERGING MARKETS

11.9% (MSCI Emerging Markets 30-04-2026 in CAD)

Emerging markets were the biggest winners in April, surging 13.3% in local currencies and 11.9% in Canadian currency. 

The return was largely due to a marked return of risk appetite, supported by the announcement of a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, although negotiations remained uncertain. 

South Korea and Taiwan recorded exceptional gains on enthusiasm for companies in the artificial intelligence supply chain. 

Despite the April surge, risks remain. Geopolitical tensions are still running high, especially in the Middle East, and continue to pose a tangible threat to global economic and financial stability.  

Reading in progress:April 2026 – Markets rebound on strong earnings despite geopolitical uncertainty

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